The coming collapse in immigration to the United Kingdom - UK in a changing Europe

James Bowes analyses the fall in net migration to the UK as a result of government policies and explores some of the political and economic consequences.

In May, the government released a White Paper with a plan to reduce net migration by 100,000 a year. However, net migration will actually fall much further than that. Because of immigration restrictions introduced by the previous government, net migration halved from 860,000 in 2023 to 431,000 in 2024 and continued to fall throughout 2025. Emigration will continue to increase as more people from the large recent cohorts of immigrants start to leave. While considerable uncertainties remain, I estimate that net migration will fall to between 70,000 and 170,000 in 2026.

Visa grants have fallen significantly since the first half of 2024, down by over 100,000 in the first half of 2025. The main reason for this is stricter immigration rules. In March 2024, care workers and senior care workers were banned from bringing dependants (i.e. their spouse and children) and in April 2024 the salary threshold increased for work visas and family visas. There has also been a decline in people from Ukraine and Hong Kong arriving on humanitarian schemes.

On 22 July 2025, the first rule change from the White Paper was introduced. The skill threshold for getting a skilled worker visa or health and care visa increased from NQF level 3 to NQF level 6 (graduate level).

There is an exception to this rule for shortage occupations. Despite being shortage occupations, care workers and senior care workers can no longer be recruited from abroad. And even for shortage occupations, workers in jobs below graduate level can no longer bring dependants.

The fall in work visa applications since the introduction of these new rules is consistent with the fall of 46,000 work visas a year predicted by the White Paper. On 8 January 2026, the government will further tighten the rules by raising the English language level required for a work visa B1 to B2.

The White Paper also introduces three policies that are expected to decrease international student numbers by about 31,000 a year. However, this decrease is roughly cancelled out by the 7% increase in international students from 2024 to 2025.

In addition to the cuts in the White Paper, the government has suspended family reunion for refugees, closed the Afghan resettlement scheme and tightened the suitability rules for people applying to remain under right to family life or private life rules.

A 10-year wait for Indefinite Leave to Remain

The government has announced that the residency period required to obtain Indefinite Leave to Remain (ILR) will increase from 5 years to 10 years. It has been proposed that some people will still be eligible after 5 years if they obtain enough points to qualify, but no details of how points can be obtained have been released yet.

This change has been controversial as there has been a lack of clarity about how it will affect people already living here. A petition to protect people already here from the changes was discussed in parliament on 8 September 2025.

The White Paper estimated that a 10-year wait for ILR would increase emigration by 18,000 people a year. However, this may prove an underestimate if people decide they don’t want another five years of high fees, being tied to their employers and the risk of losing their right to live here if they lose their job.

Pre-existing trends will lead to an increase in emigration

The emigration rate of international students has been lower than normal in the last few years because they are able to stay and work for 2 years after graduation on the graduate visa. Growth in take up of this visa has been rapid.

150,000 more graduate visas were granted in 2024 than in 2022. These visas will expire in 2026, leading to an increase in emigration, and this increase will only partially be offset by an increase in graduate visa holders switching to work visas.

Emigration of students at the end of their course will actually be lower in 2026 than 2024. This is because master’s students were banned from bringing dependants from 1 January 2024. This ban also led to a fall in international master’s student numbers. A small increase in emigration of workers is expected because there will be more people with a work visa.

There is always some uncertainty in projecting immigration. For example, it is difficult to predict whether emigration of EU nationals will remain at current levels. Asylum seeker numbers could start to fall in line with European trends. Nevertheless, net migration will fall significantly and is likely to be 60-80% lower in 2026 than in 2024.

Political and economic consequences

Public concern about immigration remains unusually high and has not yet caught up with the reality of falling immigration. However, by the 2029 general election there will have been several years of low net migration. A sharp fall in immigration could impact Reform UK, who are currently leading opinion polls, especially if asylum seeker numbers also fall.

However, a fall in net migration of 300,000 a year would increase the deficit by about £20 billion. The government are already having to make unpopular tax rises and spending cuts in the upcoming budget, but would have to make more if the deficit increases. A fall in international student numbers will put further pressure on universities that are struggling financially, especially the 22 universities expected to lose their sponsor license.

Reducing immigration will not necessarily increase the number of jobs available for British people as some employers are responding to tightening immigration rules by increasing outsourcing. Some job vacancies will become harder to fill, particularly in care homes. This will be even worse if a lot of people emigrate because they do not want to wait 10 years for ILR.

Net migration will fall very sharply in future years as a result of immigration restrictions brought in by both the current and the previous government. Furthermore, emigration will continue to increase, particularly of people with graduate visas. Any political benefit the government may gain from this fall in immigration could be jeopardised by the economic damage that it causes.

By James Bowes, Space Management Assistant, Strategic Planning and Analytics, University of Warwick.